**AI Predictions for 2024 and Beyond: A Deep Dive into the Future of Artificial Intelligence**
2023 has been a massive year for the development of large language models (LLMs). Over the span of several months, we’ve seen the release of GPT4, ChatGPT Enterprise, Google Bard, Microsoft Bing Chat, and Meta’s LLama 2. But what will AI do in the future? Techopedia’s predictions for AI in 2024 and beyond suggest plenty of fascinating developments to come on the road ahead. We asked two of our technology writers, Tim Keary and Neil Hughes, to sit down and talk us through their hopes, dreams, fears, and controversial takes on what the next few years may bring.
**1. Generative AI Hype Will Crash**
As users and organizations alike continue to experiment with generative AI, the hype around the technology will begin to crash as overexcitement over LLMs and the potential development of artificial general intelligence (AGI) has given way to a more realistic understanding of what chatbots can, and can’t do. Arguably, this process can already be seen by the fact that the number of visits to the ChatGPT website has fallen for three months in a row. One of ChatGPT’s main competitors, Bard, hasn’t fared much better either, with the verbose chatbot receiving just 13% of ChatGPT’s traffic as of August 2023. The decline in hype around the technology is also being accelerated by growing anti-AI sentiments as workers and other stakeholders in society are becoming increasingly vocal about the adverse impact of automation and other ethical concerns. For instance, not only have Hollywood writers and the Writers Guild of America (WGA) successfully protested to implement restrictions on AI’s use in the filmmaking industry, but vendors like OpenAI have been hit with a number of lawsuits over allegedly using copyrighted material and intellectual property to train AI models.
**2. Digital IDs, AI, and CBDCs: The Inevitable Collision Course of Two Tech Trends**
I recently spent time in Estonia and was blown away by how 99% of its public services are available online. The country offers its citizens and businesses a sweeping array of digital services. This focus on digital governance has streamlined bureaucratic processes, saving the country an estimated 2% of its GDP each year and positioning Estonia as a global thought leader in digital identity and e-governance. This digital utopia hinges on a single but crucial point: citizens’ universal adoption of digital IDs. While highly efficient, this ID system also opens the door to potential concerns about privacy and surveillance. It is a foundational element for other digital initiatives, such as Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and carbon credit scoring, offering exciting opportunities for financial innovation while also raising ethical questions. Security experts warn that centralizing such vast amounts of data could provide governments with unprecedented real-time oversight of citizens’ economic activities, posing risks that range from data misuse and financial censorship to targeted punitive actions against dissenting individuals.
Combine that data with the future of AI, where its burgeoning powers to quickly parse through datasets and pull out very specific information in natural language. It stops just being a policeman you’re worried about — but an always-on, efficient investigator. The issue extends beyond the technical to tap into cultural and political spheres. To gain universal acceptance, digital IDs must navigate a complex landscape of cultural attitudes toward privacy and government intervention. Therefore, the move toward such a comprehensive digital identification system isn’t merely a technological shift but a significant societal transition. It requires a nuanced, multidimensional dialogue that weighs the allure of efficiency and technological innovation against the imperative for individual liberties, ethical considerations, and data security.
**3. Hackers Will Create Multimodal Jailbreaks**
Since the release of ChatGPT in November 2022, AI developers, independent researchers, prompt engineers, and threat actors have all been experimenting with ways to jailbreak large language models. One of the most notorious examples is the Do Anything Now (DAN) prompt, a technique that enabled users to exploit LLMs like ChatGPT to generate content outside of their content moderation guidelines. This could include everything from discriminatory output to malicious step-by-step instructions on how to commit cybercrime. Now, as more AI vendors like OpenAI and Google move to embrace multimodal LLMs with GPT4-V and Gemini, we can expect to see users experiment with new techniques to jailbreak these technologies. As Princeton University researchers pointed out in a study released earlier this year, multimodal LLMs create a present wider attack surface for hackers to exploit (PDF) as users attempt to combine text and image prompts to exploit these technologies. The true risk posed by this exploitation remains to be seen.
**4. Is 2024 the App Store Moment for Generative AI?**
Looking back to last year’s articles, nobody predicted how Generative AI would quickly dominate conversations this year. Like Tim, I also have mixed feelings about AI and all the buzz it’s getting. It’s hard to get excited about companies like Microsoft building hype around its AI strategy while the apparent junk and scam emails in my Outlook inbox increase. I also have a problem with the somewhat false narrative promoted by big tech that their AI solution is not at the expense of jobs while making mass layoffs to buy more GPUs. However, I don’t think Gen Gen AI is going anywhere despite my reservations. I see 2024 as the year when businesses start to figure out how to use Gen AI to their advantage, thanks to an increasing number of plugins. The success will be determined by what problems Gen AI solves in business-critical applications. Think about when mobile apps first came out. At first, they were very gimmicky, like turning your phone into a fake pint of beer, a chainsaw, or playing the Ocarina. But now, apps do so much more. I think AI is headed in that same direction. If 2023 was Gen AI’s iPhone moment, then 2024 could be its App Store moment.
**5. The Gap Between Open and Closed Source AI Models Will Close**
On a more positive note, open-source AI is well-situated to close the gap with closed-source AI models. This year, we’ve seen powerful open-source models like Llama 2 and Falcon 180B demonstrate that enterprises have a viable alternative to relying on proprietary blackbox models. While these models aren’t yet at the level of GPT-4, they have performed well against other proprietary models like GPT-3.5 and Bard and, with fine-tuning, remain a highly competitive open-source alternative to the leading closed-source models. It’s unlikely that open-source models will overtake the computational power and capabilities of proprietary LLMs in 2024. However, with the potential release of powerful multimodal models from Google and OpenAI in the form of Gobi and Gemini, open-source AI will undoubtedly become a greater force to be reckoned with.
**6. Steps Towards a Cookieless and Passwordless World**
In early 2024, we will gradually move towards a cookieless internet. Google has set this stage by phasing out third-party cookies from Chrome. Beginning with just 1% of users in July 2022, Google aims to completely remove third-party cookies by the end of 2023. This shift will have a substantial impact on online advertising and web analytics, forcing advertisers and marketers to find new ways to target users and measure campaign effectiveness. Alongside the cookieless revolution, we are also witnessing a push towards a passwordless world. The traditional username and password approach to authentication is increasingly being replaced by biometric authentication methods, such as fingerprint and face recognition. These new authentication methods offer improved security and convenience for users, eliminating the need to remember multiple passwords. However, there are still challenges to be addressed, such as ensuring the privacy and security of biometric data.
The future of AI is undoubtedly a fascinating and complex topic. As technology continues to advance and evolve, we can expect to see both positive and negative outcomes. It’s important for us to navigate these developments with careful consideration and ethical principles in mind. AI holds tremendous potential, but it’s crucial to ensure that its implementation aligns with the values of society. As we move forward, let’s strive for a future where AI enriches our lives while upholding our fundamental rights and values.
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